Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."